At 3 new households a month, deliveries start paying for themselves around month 3 (~8 households), and a part-time runner on a real wage lands around month 15 (about 44 households, once the ~$12,560/yr runner is covered by margin). Every household still saves about $42/month from buying bulk.
Month 1 · proof
Seed
1 to 3 households
Buying powerA quarter or half beef per household, straight from a farm at a blended $6 to $9 a pound across every cut.
UnlocksProof the price is real, and one household's freezer full of cheaper meat.
WhenAround month 1, roughly $3,600/yr of buying.
GateOne honest farm or locker quote. That is the whole ask.
Month 2 · the group exists
First whole buy
4 households
Buying powerOne whole beef (~450 lb packaged), split four ways. The smallest real group buy.
UnlocksA repeatable order, and the first shared decision (the cut sheet).
WhenAround month 2, roughly $14,400/yr of buying.
GateFour committed households and a farm willing to sell a whole animal.
Month 3 · the runner appears
Deliveries pay for themselves
~8 households
Buying powerTwo to three animals a month, plus one batched pickup route instead of eight separate trips.
UnlocksA per-run runner that funds itself at ~$8.63 a household per run. No subsidy needed.
WhenAround month 3, roughly $28,800/yr of buying.
GateSomeone to run a route, and a cluster tight enough to batch.
Month 5 · it starts to feel real
Standing orders
~15 to 20 households
Buying powerRecurring farm orders, case-lot dry staples, and a routine warehouse-club split run.
UnlocksReal negotiating weight with a farm, and the first “should we share a freezer” conversation.
WhenAround month 5, roughly $54,000/yr of buying.
GateConsistent month-over-month demand, not just one-off buys.
Month 15 · a person gets paid
Fund a person
~44 households
Buying powerEnough monthly buying to carry a wage, plus direct-from-farm relationships.
UnlocksA part-time runner on a real wage, and the point where it is worth incorporating as a co-op so surplus returns as a patronage rebate.
WhenAround month 15, roughly $158,400/yr of buying.
GateReal monthly spend routed through the co-op. Name the runner's employment relationship first.
Month 17 · wholesale weight
Wholesale power
~50+ households
Buying powerDirect-from-producer volume, pallet and near-truckload buys, and a shared central freezer or locker.
UnlocksA bigger runner role with a way up, real member governance, and the trust network that can seed the building.
WhenAround month 17, roughly $180,000/yr of buying.
GateGovernance, a capital asset (the freezer) with an owner, and a proven track record. Earned, not rushed.
What “buying power” actually buys
Early on it is price: four households buying one animal already beat retail, because a whole animal is one blended price and retail hides its markup in the steaks. That win exists at household four.
In the middle it is time and standing orders: a batched runner replaces everyone's separate trips, and consistent monthly volume turns one-off favours from a farm into a real recurring deal.
At the top it is leverage and infrastructure: fifty households buying direct from a producer, holding a shared freezer, is a different animal than a grocery run. That is also the network that makes the bigger plays fundable, because trust and volume are already proven.